Wes Riddle's Horse Sense
November 5, 2007
One of the most important transformations now occurring in the world concerns changing demographics, and this has profound implications for Western civilization including the United States, our culture and way of life. Simply put, most countries in the Western world aren’t replacing their population through natural birth. Native stock is being eclipsed. In Europe the birthrate is 30 percent below what it should be to maintain a steady population. By 2035 there could be 80 million fewer Europeans than there are today. In terms of economic impact, it means the working age population is declining and will tend to pull those economies down. It is the case not only because younger workers no longer replace older ones, but also because retired older workers have claims through government sponsored pension programs on the economic productivity of a decreasing number of younger workers.
The upshot of course, is that you can import sufficient labor—indeed fertile people into your country, recognizing that as you transform your demographic makeup you inevitably transform your culture and change what it means to be European or even Western. By 2020 more than 50% of births in the Netherlands will be non-European. In Italy where the birthrate is one of the lowest in the world, the government has started to offer tax breaks to Italian couples choosing to bear children but finding few takers. Ten percent of the populations in Germany and France today are actually Muslim, and the percentage is climbing rapidly. The situation already puts tremendous pressure on the ability of those countries to conduct their foreign policy, literally precluding them from supporting U.S. efforts in Iraq and some independent efforts on behalf of the War on Terror. Indeed, the history of the United States is replete with examples of foreign policy succumbing or being altered by democratic lobby efforts and by pressure group politics emanating from immigrant populations.
In our own country, we face a similar challenge from legal—and especially illegal immigration. Notwithstanding, as hard as it may be to believe, the situation is not nearly so dire as in Europe. The U.S. birthrate is 14.16 births per year per thousand, just below replacement. We have an increase in population only because of immigration. When broken down by ethnicity, Anglo birthrate is one of the lowest, and we have an aging population percentage-wise such that Social Security will be in jeopardy in a generation. If the next administration increases the size and scope of the welfare state, the situation will clearly be exacerbated.
According to Herb Meyer, who managed production of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimates for President Reagan, the reason birthrates are so low is that there is a direct correlation between abandonment of traditional religious society and a drop in birthrate. Christianity in Europe is simply becoming irrelevant. He states, “Western civilization seems to have forgotten what every primitive society understands—you need kids to have a healthy society. Children are huge consumers. Then they grow up to become taxpayers. That’s how a society works, but the postmodern secular state seems to have forgotten that…. The birth rate in Russia is so low that by 2050 their population will be smaller than that of Yemen. Russia has one-sixth of the earth’s land surface and much of its oil. You can’t control that much area with such a small population. Immediately to the south, you have China with 70 million unmarried men who are a real potential nightmare scenario for Russia.”
In terms of changing demographics affecting the West in particular, there is probably only one place left where the trend can stop and may yet reverse itself. It involves, however, making some hard demographic choices. Herb Meyer: “There has never been a superpower in [the United States’] position before. On the one hand, this makes the U.S. a magnet for bright and ambitious people. It also makes us a target. We are becoming one of the last holdouts of the traditional Judeo-Christian culture. There is no better place in the world to be in business and raise children. The U.S. is by far the best place to have an idea, form a business and put it into the marketplace. We take it for granted, but it isn’t as available in other countries of the world. Ultimately, it’s an issue of culture. The only people who can hurt us are ourselves, by losing our culture. If we give up our Judeo-Christian culture, we become just like the Europeans. The culture war is the whole ballgame. If we lose it, there isn’t another America to pull us out.
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Wesley Allen Riddle is a retired military officer with degrees and honors
from West Point and Oxford. Widely published in the academic and opinion
press, he ran for U.S. Congress (TX-District 31) in the 2004 Republican
Primary. Email: wes@wesriddle.com.
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