Wes Riddle's Horse Sense
January 21, 2008
Private American businesses in Saudi Arabia are generally quickest to bring dependents back after serious problems pass, because of the quantifiably negative impact on morale management gets from surveys, interviews, etc., which unaccompanied status has on employees in the workforce. Government agencies are slower, but the discontent bubbles and eventually reaches responsible decision makers—and sometimes the decision makers are the bubblers. For instance, some Defense organizations in Saudi Arabia have asked to decouple from the State Department’s policy regarding dependents, so they can bring their families back. It may not be necessary for long, since the new Ambassador, Ford Fraker is inclined to agree and has already asked his chain to approve spousal visitations for Embassy personnel.
Of course a lot of travel advisories remain in place, and this points up the difficulty of deescalating so to speak, even when things are looking good. No one wants to be the guy who whistles the ‘All Clear’ before a big explosion, particularly if there’s not much downside to playing over-cautious. The Saudis would like to see normalcy again with Americans and would very much like to improve perceptions in the United States. Return of families and dependents to the Kingdom would signal recognition of the changes they’ve made on the ground. Nobody, by the way, would invite their dependents back unless they felt it were safe. In some ways the situation today in Saudi Arabia is anecdotal and applies to the broader War on Terror—particularly going on seven years of bringing war to the enemy.
In an interview this past September, Walter Isaacson asked retired General and former Secretary of State Colin Powell about the current capability of the threat to harm America. While his explanation was nuanced, the bottom line was clear: Al Qaeda does not represent anything close to a threat to our survival. Powell thinks at this stage “We are taking too much counsel of our fears” and missing important diplomatic and economic opportunities around the world. My perspective is similar, in that, I think we’re increasingly swinging sledgehammers at gnats and have clearly passed the point of diminishing return being embroiled in Iraq. Anyway we can set up defensive and preemptive lines elsewhere. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is open for business now, and Americans are losing out to Chinese, Russians, French and almost every other nationality. That’s a crying shame, because Americans can win any competition. It is also foolishness, given that Saudi Arabia has 25% of the world’s proven oil reserves and ranks fourth in the world for natural gas. It is worse than foolishness and plain stupid if we fail to follow through on a natural advantage—in military terms, to reinforce success.
The previous U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, James Oberwetter who was Ambassador for three years beginning with the aftermath of “Saudi 9/11,” says helping the Saudis address their security concerns with Al Qaeda constitutes one of the most significant strategic successes of the Bush Administration. Until now, however, it is also one of the most frequently overlooked. Of course, much of the cooperative effort has been classified, but there is no doubt that our biggest strategic ally in the Middle East is Saudi Arabia. According to Ambassador Fraker, Riyadh’s level of intelligence sharing with the U.S. in fighting the global War on Terror is second only to London’s! Moreover, Saudi Arabia dwarfs the other economies in the region (including Qatar or Dubai/UAE which gets all the press). According to economist Gene Heck, Saudi Arabia’s planned privatization of public infrastructural sectors invokes investment causing $624 billion in new market opportunities through the year 2020.
_____________________
Wesley Allen Riddle is a retired military officer with degrees and honors
from West Point and Oxford. Widely published in the academic and opinion
press, he ran for U.S. Congress (TX-District 31) in the 2004 Republican
Primary. Email: wes@wesriddle.com.
|