Wes Riddle's Horse Sense
January 28, 2008
There certainly is a bear of a problem in Iraq—but it’s also a horse of a different color entirely from Saudi Arabia. According to retired General and former Secretary of State Colin Powell, the initial victory we enjoyed in Iraq devolved into insurgency, which devolved into civil war and now, into “total civil disorder.” The U.S. military surge won’t stop it and can’t, because it is not sustainable when what is really needed is an “Iraqi political and military surge.” That’s a convoluted way of saying this bear-horse in Iraq belongs to someone else at this point, especially when it’s no direct threat to us. Fortunately our relationship with Saudi Arabia has continued to evolve and improve as the situation in Iraq worsened—and perhaps in part, because of it. The only regional partner capable of offsetting Iran in the Middle East is Saudi Arabia, and while much is made by the American press and public concerning Saudi Arabia’s lack of support for U.S. policy in Iraq, a chief reason has been the Saudis’ consistent assessment and indeed warning that Iran would be the only long-term beneficiary of the chaos and turmoil in that country.
Notwithstanding any new ‘counsel of our fears,’ if there is to be a growing threat or extended strategic competition involving Iran and its Shia Muslim political orbit, then we should increase military and economic cooperation with Saudi Arabia. Such an approach wins, whether the war is cold or hot. Meanwhile, it doesn’t hurt Americans any, especially these days, to bolster our international standing and credibility. Of course it might mean some de-emphasis on democracy, a little more on reform. I can tell you those who train Arab militaries and deal with Arab governments and people know that time and progress are not viewed the same way we view them. You learn to measure progress in inches not miles, by years not months. To judge progress by Western standards will only serve to frustrate, whereas understanding Arab culture allows you to adapt to their pace of progress and decision making and to achieve something, if not nearly everything. Certainly we need to rediscover the art of what’s possible in foreign policy and bilateral relations. In my opinion, we also need to regain an appreciation for the historical and cultural antecedents that make us who we are, and which explain why the rest of the world finds conditions in America so difficult to replicate.
From an American perspective, I know that measurable success is a characteristic of our society. In my judgment we have given the president’s surge strategy appropriate time to work (by the administration’s and the generals’ own estimates, it should have been about six months), and now we need to start a responsible drawdown. As we leave, expect the civil war to intensify as a power vacuum gets filled; and expect the government in Iraq to struggle for 10-20 years more. At the same time, however, we should establish our strategic perimeter outside of Iraq, in Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, while maintaining mobile forces and a strike capability. Most important of all, we should strengthen the strategic alliance with the Saudis and assist them with border operations if possible. Indeed, in August 2007 the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia announced its intent to build a fence and sensor barrier for hundreds of miles along the border with Iraq, in order to prevent terrorists from entering the Kingdom. Saudi efforts to prevent home-grown jihadists from entering into Iraq have been so successful that almost every Saudi who does, chooses to avoid Saudi authorities altogether and enter from a third country, especially Syria.
Obviously we need to leave a residual level of troops in Iraq to put out fires and protect the American Embassy and other discrete vital interests. Our main interest though ought to be to establish an effective, long-term advisory mission to assist their government agencies, military and police, as opposed to accepting primary military responsibility for that country. All of which still presumes robust diplomatic efforts, aimed particularly at dealing with Syria and Iran. Time is the standard we seem to use to judge our success, and Americans want it now, but the real solution is likely to take generations. As far as dependency on oil is concerned, it is clearly one of the underlying reasons we are engaged in the Middle East. So we have a domestic challenge too, and a long-term solution to pursue: to develop our own natural resources, to produce alternative sources of power, to significantly reduce dependency over time on a resource that happens to reside in an inherently unstable part of the world.
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Wesley Allen Riddle is a retired military officer with degrees and honors
from West Point and Oxford. Widely published in the academic and opinion
press, he ran for U.S. Congress (TX-District 31) in the 2004 Republican
Primary. Email: wes@wesriddle.com.
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